Cassandra, Jeremiah, and me

People have gone to deserts for more than 2000 years to find solitude, inspiration, meditation, and freedom. This website delves into some aspects of desert life in the early 21st century with a geographical focus on Newberry Springs, California. The front page is my blog and the links on the right deal with a few resources in a local context.

Books

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Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond; why Europeons overwhelmed the First Americans and not the other way around.

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Collapse by Jared Diamond; how and why societies fail.

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The Party's Over by Richard Heinberg; oil, war, and the fate of industrial societies.

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Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons; do you think OPEC has lots of oil?

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Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes; one of the best descriptions of peak oil by a colleague of M. King Hubbert.

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Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb; how shit happens that we have no way of predicting and it makes a big impact.

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Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change by William R. Catton; one of the best descriptions of the fix we're in -- a classic.

The Main Points

Let's go over the main points one more time.


  1. The long predicted crisis of peak oil is finally upon us. From here on out production will diminish. We are less prepared for this now than we were when Jimmy Carter was president. That means we get to experience the consequences with a greater sense of angst.
  2. Under the forcing of human greenhouse gas emissions the climate is set to display some behavior that humanity hasn't experienced yet in the Holocene.
  3. Against this backdrop a mostly young human population with tremendous reproductive capacity is exponentially expanding.
  4. I also include water shortages in this mix because it's the basis of life, it's increasingly hard to come by, and my education is as a hydrologist. But as I make the case in a book to be published next spring by the University of Nevada, Reno Press, I think energy will outstrip water as our primary crisis. There is as much water on the planet as there has every been so it's more a matter of quality rather than quantity and we have a lot of room for conservation. We squirt huge amounts up into the sky in fountains simply for decoration.

Each one of these crises in itself is essentially linear. Peak oil is described by a logistics curve as a function total volume. Although the climate is a tricky beast, the basic idea is that increasing greenhouse gases increases trapped heat and warms the globe. Population growth is exponential, which means that it is log-linear. There is plenty of literature on each one of these topics but nowhere is there a comprehensive discussion of their interactions coupled with possible societal responses. A few bloggers and authors are talking about the relationship between energy and climate. Recently Science and other journals are reporting the difficult to predict relationship between climate change and drought. Here, at this blog, I'm after the crux – how will humanity cope?

What does Newberry Springs have to do with this discussion? For one thing, we're a small rural community with lots of flat land and decent water for growing food. The community has proved itself by driving away the proposed sludge farm. We have probably the best location in the country for that free energy, sunshine, that hits the earth every day. The suburbs have never caught on here, thank God. Small rural communities like this are our hope for the future. I'm touched by a comment posted by a young person at Professor Guy McPherson's blog (Nature Bats Last link on the right),

"Even more difficult than the question of when to stop warning them of the coming crises is how to prepare oneself. I for one have no idea what to do, and little money to invest in property or foodstuffs."

How do we prepare? All of us? 



  1. Stop traveling.
  2. Grow a garden,
  3. Build local community. If you have land, like many of us here, you might need a gardener or two.

Later on I'm going to once again rail on the gurus of peak oil (e.g. James Kunstler and Richard Heinberg) and how they seem to spend all their time jetting around the countryside to lecture. There's no small amount of arrogance on display here. But in answer to Jeremy's question about not having land and food, the approach is in 3 and 2; community garden.
  • teosinte @ 19:01 

    Parallel Worlds

    Previous Front Page is at this Link

    "We live in two different worlds, dear. My world is honest and true." Fred Rose (performed by Hank Williams)

    Another week, another climate change conference. This time the left front wheel on the Jeep sheared off two bolts and was left wobbling on the remaining three loose nuts. It seems that Barstow Tired and Broke didn't tighten the lug nuts when they fixed the flat last Friday. We spent two quality hours at Big O in Wasco. At the workshop we wrung our hands about how bad things are then talked endlessly about planning the world to death. But the highlight for me came with a presentation of a short video to be shown to the public. It seems you can't motivate people with the truth, i.e. our situation is dire. Instead you have to tell them everything will be alright if we all indulge in hopeful thinking. Then, we were told, folks will have the positive can do state of mind to make the necessary changes. The short film was set in the year 2020. Happy people were interviewed about the great awakening that narrowly averted the climate crisis as antigravity cars zipped around in the background. It seems that folks had organized on the internet and forced the energy companies to provide "renewable" energy via their organized purchasing power. In the end the globe didn't warm after all since all that was coming out of our tailpipes was pure drinking water and we sped merrily on our way in our hydrogen powered hovercraft. Presumably, although the film didn't go into it, the human population continued to grow exponentially and the suburban carpet continued to roll out across the landscape. Or maybe positive thinking solved that, too.

    Post modern America is narrated with multiple, mutually contradictory storylines. The loudest, most insistent story is narrated by the mainstream media as directed by the global elites. Mostly that story is the one the military-financial matrix wants you to believe. But contradictory facts keep leaking out. Usually it's too late and very few are paying attention. Then reality bites – at the gasoline pump, at the grocery store, at the bank. We need someone to blame. Oh, didn't you hear? It's Iran's fault. Iran is the biggest threat to world peace and prosperity. We simply must bomb them immediately. The U.S. public, secret, and top secret military budget will come to about $1.1 trillion taxed and borrowed dollars this year. What do you think all that money is going to do? Pay close attention because it's going to narrate the story.

    • teosinte @ 21:40 

      Recent History

      Come, let us recite together the early history of the twenty first century. In year one an arrogant lad of privilege, with few redeeming characteristics, was selected President by the U.S. Supreme Court in a 5 to 4 decision that overruled the constitutional prerogative of the state of Florida. Later two iconic buildings collapsed in their footprints after being hit by passenger jets. That same day a third building mysteriously collapsed into its footprint in what looked to be very much like controlled demolition. This was followed by two wars of U.S. aggression and an odiferous coverup. Numerous laws and Executive Orders redacted most of our Constitutional Bill of Rights. Air went out of the housing bubble while the costs of basic necessities, such as fuel and grain, shot up. How does the shit hit the fan? One blade at a time.

      Collapse is personal. Reality can explode in a hail of shrapnel, any time, that leaves tattered carcasses in its wake in milliseconds. As an example of rank hypocrisy, I have to travel extensively for my job. Last week I was in Seattle and had to be in Tucson the next day. Our jet caught a tailwind out of San Francisco and we landed in Tucson a half hour early. I woke up a cabby about 11;30PM and we headed north. While we sat at a light at Kino and 22nd and I thought about how driver's licenses grant one the privilege of endangering other people's lives –  an automobile projectile burst into a stainless steel sign post twenty feet away and headed towards my window while at the same time the Ford pickup that had just run the red light and hit the white car smashed into the front of the cab I was in. The white car went whirling in front of my nose, spraying debris, and ended up about fifty feet behind us with a dead driver inside. A third mini van lay totaled on the other side of the median. I watched the driver of the Ford pickup wander around bleeding profusely from his head while the people in the mini van looked seriously injured. There was a pickax laying on the asphalt near my window, the cabby screaming into his cell phone looking out a shattered windshield, then the paramedics and fire department were on the scene. My God that was fast. Go ahead and raise my taxes if that's all we pay for. Four people were taken to the hospital in ambulances and one went to the morgue. It became a crime scene that I wasn't allowed to leave until after my interview with a detective at 2:00 AM.

      Power went out over a swath of Tucson when I got out of the shower the next morning. Fortunately the emergency backup ran the elevators so I didn't have to call for help on my cell phone from the sixth floor. Escaping the building, I rolled up campus to Biosciences East, where I was scheduled to give a talk at 2:00 PM, and asked for a room to plug in my laptap. A short time later the power went out and the fire alarm came on. We were to evacuate the building. I reluctantly rolled down to the stairwell, we all looked at my wheelchair and wondered, "what are we going to do with Debra?" The building manger arrived. We looked in each other's eyes and realized that this was the first time he had every thought about it. Only I can truly appreciate the irony of being dropped down the stairs and cracking my fool skull open for a safety drill. So I refused and a group of my supporters, who also refused to leave, waited around for the alarm to go off. My talk went well.

      How does empire fall? One brick at a time or in a wave of Visigoths?

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