People have
gone to deserts for more than 2000 years to find solitude, inspiration,
meditation, and freedom. This website delves into some aspects of desert
life in the early 21st century with a geographical focus on
Newberry Springs, California. The front page is my blog and the links on
the right deal with a few resources in a local context.
Books
Guns, Germs, and Steel by Jared Diamond; why Europeons overwhelmed the
First Americans and not the other way around.
Collapse by Jared Diamond; how and why societies fail.
The Party's Over by Richard Heinberg; oil, war, and the fate of
industrial societies.
Twilight in the Desert by Matthew Simmons; do you think OPEC has lots
of oil?
Beyond Oil: The View from Hubbert's Peak by Kenneth Deffeyes; one of
the best descriptions of peak oil by a colleague of M. King Hubbert.
Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas
Taleb; how shit happens that we have no way of predicting and it makes a
big impact.
Overshoot: The Ecological Basis of Revolutionary Change by William R.
Catton; one of the best descriptions of the fix we're in -- a classic.
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28 April 2008
Let's go over the main points one more time.
- The long predicted crisis of peak oil is finally upon us. From here
on out production will diminish. We are less prepared for this now than
we were when Jimmy Carter was president. That means we get to experience
the consequences with a greater sense of angst.
- Under the forcing of human greenhouse gas emissions the climate is
set to display some behavior that humanity hasn't experienced yet in the
Holocene.
- Against this backdrop a mostly young human population with
tremendous reproductive capacity is exponentially expanding.
- I also include water shortages in this mix because it's the basis of
life, it's increasingly hard to come by, and my education is as a
hydrologist. But as I make the case in a book to be published next
spring by the University of Nevada, Reno Press, I think energy will
outstrip water as our primary crisis. There is as much water on the
planet as there has every been so it's more a matter of quality rather
than quantity and we have a lot of room for conservation. We squirt huge
amounts up into the sky in fountains simply for
decoration.
Each one of these crises in itself is
essentially linear. Peak oil is described by a logistics curve as a
function total volume. Although the climate is a tricky beast, the basic
idea is that increasing greenhouse gases increases trapped heat and warms
the globe. Population growth is exponential, which means that it is
log-linear. There is plenty of literature on each one of these topics but
nowhere is there a comprehensive discussion of their interactions coupled
with possible societal responses. A few bloggers and authors are talking
about the relationship between energy and climate. Recently Science and
other journals are reporting the difficult to predict relationship between
climate change and drought. Here, at this blog, I'm after the crux – how
will humanity cope? What does Newberry Springs have to do with this
discussion? For one thing, we're a small rural community with lots of flat
land and decent water for growing food. The community has proved itself by
driving away the proposed sludge farm. We have probably the best location
in the country for that free energy, sunshine, that hits the earth every
day. The suburbs have never caught on here, thank God. Small rural
communities like this are our hope for the future. I'm touched by a
comment posted by a young person at Professor Guy McPherson's blog (Nature
Bats Last link on the right), "Even more difficult than the
question of when to stop warning them of the coming crises is how to
prepare oneself. I for one have no idea what to do, and little money to
invest in property or foodstuffs." How do we prepare? All of
us?
- Stop traveling.
- Grow a garden,
- Build local community. If you have land, like many of us here, you
might need a gardener or two.
Later on I'm going to once
again rail on the gurus of peak oil (e.g. James Kunstler and Richard
Heinberg) and how they seem to spend all their time jetting around the
countryside to lecture. There's no small amount of arrogance on display
here. But in answer to Jeremy's question about not having land and food,
the approach is in 3 and 2; community garden.
- teosinte @ 19:01
26 April 2008
Previous
Front Page is at this Link
"We live
in two different worlds, dear. My world is honest and true." Fred Rose
(performed by Hank Williams)
Another week,
another climate change conference. This time the left front wheel on the
Jeep sheared off two bolts and was left wobbling on the remaining three
loose nuts. It seems that Barstow Tired and Broke didn't tighten the lug
nuts when they fixed the flat last Friday. We spent two quality hours at
Big O in Wasco. At the workshop we wrung our hands about how bad things
are then talked endlessly about planning the world to death. But the
highlight for me came with a presentation of a short video to be shown to
the public. It seems you can't motivate people with the truth, i.e. our
situation is dire. Instead you have to tell them everything will be
alright if we all indulge in hopeful thinking. Then, we were told, folks
will have the positive can do state of mind to make the necessary changes.
The short film was set in the year 2020. Happy people were interviewed
about the great awakening that narrowly averted the climate crisis as
antigravity cars zipped around in the background. It seems that folks had
organized on the internet and forced the energy companies to provide
"renewable" energy via their organized purchasing power. In the end the
globe didn't warm after all since all that was coming out of our tailpipes
was pure drinking water and we sped merrily on our way in our hydrogen
powered hovercraft. Presumably, although the film didn't go into it, the
human population continued to grow exponentially and the suburban carpet
continued to roll out across the landscape. Or maybe positive thinking
solved that, too.
Post modern America is narrated with multiple,
mutually contradictory storylines. The loudest, most insistent story is
narrated by the mainstream media as directed by the global elites. Mostly
that story is the one the military-financial matrix wants you to believe.
But contradictory facts keep leaking out. Usually it's too late and very
few are paying attention. Then reality bites – at the gasoline pump, at
the grocery store, at the bank. We need someone to blame. Oh, didn't you
hear? It's Iran's fault. Iran is the biggest threat to world peace and
prosperity. We simply must bomb them immediately. The U.S. public, secret,
and top secret military budget will come to about $1.1 trillion taxed and
borrowed dollars this year. What do you think all that money is going to
do? Pay close attention because it's going to narrate the
story.
- teosinte @ 21:40
20 April 2008
Come, let us
recite together the early history of the twenty first century. In year one
an arrogant lad of privilege, with few redeeming characteristics, was
selected President by the U.S. Supreme Court in a 5 to 4 decision that
overruled the constitutional prerogative of the state of Florida. Later
two iconic buildings collapsed in their footprints after being hit by
passenger jets. That same day a third building mysteriously collapsed into
its footprint in what looked to be very much like controlled demolition.
This was followed by two wars of U.S. aggression and an
odiferous coverup. Numerous laws and Executive Orders redacted most of our
Constitutional Bill of Rights. Air went out of the housing bubble while
the costs of basic necessities, such as fuel and grain, shot up. How does
the shit hit the fan? One blade at a time.
Collapse is personal.
Reality can explode in a hail of shrapnel, any time, that leaves tattered
carcasses in its wake in milliseconds. As an example of rank hypocrisy, I
have to travel extensively for my job. Last week I was in Seattle and had to be in Tucson the next day.
Our jet caught a tailwind out of San
Francisco and we landed in Tucson a half hour early. I woke up a
cabby about 11;30PM and we headed north. While we sat at a light at Kino
and 22nd and I thought about how driver's licenses grant one the privilege
of endangering other people's lives – an automobile
projectile burst into a stainless steel sign post twenty feet away and
headed towards my window while at the same time the Ford pickup that had
just run the red light and hit the white car smashed into the front of the
cab I was in. The white car went whirling in front of my nose, spraying
debris, and ended up about fifty feet behind us with a dead driver inside.
A third mini van lay totaled on the other side of the median. I watched
the driver of the Ford pickup wander around bleeding profusely from his
head while the people in the mini van looked seriously injured. There was
a pickax laying on the asphalt near my window, the cabby screaming into
his cell phone looking out a shattered windshield, then the paramedics and
fire department were on the scene. My God that was fast. Go ahead and
raise my taxes if that's all we pay for. Four people were taken to the
hospital in ambulances and one went to the morgue. It became a crime scene
that I wasn't allowed to leave until after my interview with a detective
at 2:00 AM.
Power went out over a swath of Tucson when I got
out of the shower the next morning. Fortunately the emergency backup ran
the elevators so I didn't have to call for help on my cell phone from the
sixth floor. Escaping the building, I rolled up campus to Biosciences
East, where I was scheduled to give a talk at 2:00 PM, and asked for a
room to plug in my laptap. A short time later the power went out and the
fire alarm came on. We were to evacuate the building. I reluctantly rolled
down to the stairwell, we all looked at my wheelchair and wondered, "what
are we going to do with Debra?" The building manger arrived. We looked in
each other's eyes and realized that this was the first time he had every
thought about it. Only I can truly appreciate the irony of being dropped
down the stairs and cracking my fool skull open for a safety drill. So I
refused and a group of my supporters, who also refused to leave, waited
around for the alarm to go off. My talk went well.
How does empire
fall? One brick at a time or in a wave of Visigoths?
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